Recommendation: Buy (again!!!)
CMP = Rs 3,780
Price target: Rs 5,420
Key points:
- Aban Offshore has received a letter of intent from Oil and Natural Gas Corporation for the deployment of drillship, Aban Ice, on a three-year contract worth Rs 657 crore. As per the new contract, the day rate works out to around $154,000, which is much higher than our estimate of $110,000 per day. The ongoing contract, which was at a rate of $43,000 per day, is set to expire in March 2008. As can be noticed, the new rates are almost 258% higher than the previous contract, clearly indicating the strong uptrend in the day rates.
- Also, it is important to note that the contract has been struck in rupee terms, protecting the company against any fluctuations on the foreign exchange front. I would also factor in the impact of this contract at higher day rates for Aban Ice in our next update, along with the impact of the recent acquisition of an offshore rig, Bulford, for a consideration of $211 million. All this would add to the company's growth from the next year onwards.
- Furthermore, the company might also announce its contract for the newly-built jack-up rig, Aban VIII, in February 2008, which may provide further upside to our numbers. It should be noted that the current correction in its stock price should be used as an opportunity to buy the stock.
- At the current market price of Rs 3,780, the stock is discounting its FY2009E earnings by 9.7x and FY2010E earnings by 7.5x.
- I believe that its valuations are extremely attractive at the current levels. Also, the listing of its
