Stock Idea - Tata Consultancy Services (TCS)

Recommendation: Buy

CMP = Rs 1,073 (as of Monday)

Price target: Rs 1,425

Result highlights:

·         TCS has reported a growth of 8.4% quarter on quarter (qoq) and of 25.8% year on year (yoy) in its consolidated revenues to Rs 5,639.8 crore during Q2FY2008. The sequential growth in the revenues was contributed by an 8.2% overall growth in the volume, an 85-basis-point improvement in the billing rates (including productivity gains) and a hedging profit of 86 basis points (around Rs 45 crore). On the other hand, the appreciation in the rupee and offshore shift adversely affected the revenue growth by 51 basis points and 99 basis points respectively, on a sequential basis. 

·         The earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margin improved by 77 basis points to 23.8% sequentially during the quarter. This was contributed by the cumulative impact of the overall productivity gains (of 109 basis points), offshore shift (of 36 basis points) and hedging gains (of 79 basis points). On the flip side, in addition to the rupee appreciation (a negative impact of 30 basis points), the incremental wage cost of 117 basis points resulting from the promotions affected the margin during the quarter. The operating profit grew by 12% qoq and 18.5% yoy to Rs 1,343.9 crore.

·         The other income declined by 27.2% qoq to Rs 110.5 crore, largely due to a lower foreign exchange (forex) fluctuation gain of Rs 57.7 crore (compared with Rs 107 crore in Q1). However, despite the higher tax rate (14% as against 11.3% in Q1FY2008) and a lower other income component, the company showed a sequential growth of 7.8% to Rs 1,246.9 crore (after adjusting the Q1 earnings for the one-time write-back of Rs 29.3 crore of provision made earlier). On an annual basis, the consolidated earnings have grown by 25.9%.

·         In terms of the outlook, the company doesn't give any specific growth guidance. However, it has re-iterated that the demand environment continues to be robust with no signs of any slowdown in banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) space and the US geography. The company signed three large sized deals of over $50 million (including one in the BFSI vertical) during the quarter. It also entered into master service agreements with three other clients (a couple of them from the banking space) that can potentially generate revenues equivalent to any other large deal. The pipeline of the large orders is also healthy with around 20 deals of over $50 million each. In terms of margins, the company expects to maintain the EBIT margin at around 25% in FY2008 (in line with the same as reported in FY2007). 

·         In terms of key operational highlights, the net addition of 9,268 employees is higher than expectations. This coupled with the campus offers of 22,295 fresh graduates this season (up from around 11,500 in the last fiscal) clearly reflects the management's confidence in the growth outlook of the company. Another noticeable point is the healthy double-digit sequential growth in all the relatively new service lines (such as consulting, engineering, assurance, business process outsourcing [BPO] and enterprise solutions). Moreover, the BFSI vertical showed an 11.3% sequential growth during the quarter.

·         At the current market price, the stock trades at 20.9x FY2008 and 17.3x FY2009 estimated earnings. I maintain Buy call on the stock with a price target of Rs 1,425.