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Stock Idea - Bharat Heavy Electricals & Ashok Leyland

Bharat Heavy Electricals

Recommendation: Buy

CMP = Rs 2,092

Price target: Rs 2,845

Result highlights:

• For Q3FY2008, Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd (BHEL) reported a 14.4% growth in its net sales to Rs 4,964.2 crore, whereas the net profit reported a 15.6% rise to Rs 771.9 crore. The results were below are expectations.
• The operating profit margin (OPM) for the quarter declined by 130 basis points year on year (yoy) to 20.1% mainly on account of the higher staff cost. The staff cost as percentage of sales increased by 330 basis points due to the provisions made by the company in anticipation of the wage hike to be recommended by the sixth Pay Commission. The company also made provision for productivity-linked incentives during the quarter.
• The order book continued to be robust with a 91% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in the order inflow. Orders worth Rs 10,929 crore were booked during the quarter taking the unexecuted order book to Rs 78,000 crore, which represented a growth of 67% yoy and 7.4% qoq.
• BHEL has recently increased its capacity to 10,000 mega watt (MW) per annum. The company is now looking to increase it further to 15,000MW by 2009 and 20,000MW by 2012. BHEL has won its first order for a 600MW unit from the Tamil Nadu Electricity Board (TNEB) for Rs 2,475 crore. The company had earlier denied bidding for 600MW units, as the company's product was not approved by the Central Electricity Authority (CEA). 
• BHEL has lately won an order from Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) for setting up a 345MW captive power plant in Maharashtra on EPC basis. The order is valued at Rs 866 crore.
• In view of these events, I would maintain Buy call on BHEL with a price target of Rs 2,845 over next 6 months.

 

Ashok Leyland

Recommendation: Hold

CMP = Rs 37

Price target: Rs 43

Result highlights:

• The Q3FY2008 results of Ashok Leyland Ltd (ALL) were lower than our expectations, mainly on the profitability front. The net sales for the quarter grew by 1.3% y-o-y to Rs 1,800.1 crore. The quarterly net sales were ahead of our estimates and were driven by a 7.1% growth in the average realisation. The realisation increased due to the change in the product mix in favour of fully-built vehicles. The sales volume for the quarter however declined by 5.4% y-o-y.
• Adjusting for the forex gain of Rs 3.29 crore, the operating profit declined by 12% y-o-y to Rs 162.2 crore. The OPM contracted by 140 basis points to 9% in the quarter as compared with 10.4% in the corresponding quarter of the last year. The profitability was affected due to the increase in the employee costs and the other expenditure. 
• The commercial vehicle segment is expected to recover only in FY2009. The company has revised its sales guidance for FY2008 to 86,000 from the earlier 90,000 vehicles. The sales in Q4FY2008 are expected to be driven by both the domestic sales and the export orders on hand.
• ALL has huge capex plan over the next two-year period. It has planned capex to expand its existing capacity and to set up a new manufacturing facility at Uttarkhand. Further investment will be required for its light commercial vehicle (LCV) joint venture (JV) plan with Nissan. All these are expected to exert pressure on its financials and restrict its profit growth. 
• At the current market price of Rs 37, the stock quotes at 10.3x its FY2009E earnings and 6.8x its FY2009E earnings before interest, depreciation, tax and amortisation (EBIDTA).
• I would recommend a Hold call on ALL with a price target of Rs 43, as I expect it to rise even further.

Stock Idea - Aban Offshore

Recommendation: Buy (again!!!)

CMP = Rs 3,780

Price target: Rs 5,420

Key points:

• Aban Offshore has received a letter of intent from Oil and Natural Gas Corporation for the deployment of drillship, Aban Ice, on a three-year contract worth Rs 657 crore. As per the new contract, the day rate works out to around $154,000, which is much higher than our estimate of $110,000 per day. The ongoing contract, which was at a rate of $43,000 per day, is set to expire in March 2008. As can be noticed, the new rates are almost 258% higher than the previous contract, clearly indicating the strong uptrend in the day rates. 
• Also, it is important to note that the contract has been struck in rupee terms, protecting the company against any fluctuations on the foreign exchange front. I would also factor in the impact of this contract at higher day rates for Aban Ice in our next update, along with the impact of the recent acquisition of an offshore rig, Bulford, for a consideration of $211 million. All this would add to the company's growth from the next year onwards.
• Furthermore, the company might also announce its contract for the newly-built jack-up rig, Aban VIII, in February 2008, which may provide further upside to our numbers. It should be noted that the current correction in its stock price should be used as an opportunity to buy the stock.
• At the current market price of Rs 3,780, the stock is discounting its FY2009E earnings by 9.7x and FY2010E earnings by 7.5x.
• I believe that its valuations are extremely attractive at the current levels. Also, the listing of its Singapore subsidiary would act as an important trigger for the stock going ahead. I maintain Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs 5,420 with a time frame of 9-12 months.

Stock Idea - Bharat Electronics

Recommendation: Buy

CMP = Rs 1,701

Price target: Rs 1,850

Result highlights:

• Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL) has reported another quarter of disappointing results. Its revenues declined by 23.3% to Rs 662.2 crore in Q3FY2008 as compared with Rs 863.8 crore in Q3FY2007. The management has indicated that the delay in obtaining the approval for some of its products and the bottlenecks in the supply chain have been the key reasons for the lower than expected revenues in the third quarter of FY2008.
• The operating profit margin (OPM) declined by 370 basis points to 19.2% largely due to an increase in the staff cost as a percentage of the sales (which jumped to 24.2% as compared with 12.8% in Q3FY2007). The staff cost jumped by 44.3% on the back of Rs 12 crore of provisions made (pertaining to FY2007 as per the guidance given by the Sixth Pay Commission).
• The net profit declined by 23.8% to Rs 113 crore. The company has disappointed for three quarters in a row. 
• For the first nine months, the revenues and earnings of BEL declined by 18.6% and 26.4% respectively. The OPM plummeted by 540 basis points to 15.5% during the period. In addition to a possible negative growth in the earnings in FY2008, for the first time in ten years the management might not be able to achieve the revenue targets set as per the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed with the defence ministry.
• At the current market price the stock trades at 20.9x FY2008 and 15.2x FY2009 earnings estimates.
• I still maintain Buy recommendation with a price target of Rs 1,850.

Stock Idea - Marico

Recommendation: Buy

CMP = Rs 62

Price target: Rs 70

Result highlights:

• Marico Industries Ltd's (Marico) sales growth in Q3FY2008 was in line with our expectations. The company posted a strong top line growth of 23.7% year on year (yoy) to Rs 506.2 crore aided by an impressive performance across the businesses. The stirring top line growth was a result of a 19% organic growth and a 5% inorganic growth. 
• Affected by a hefty 34% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in the staff cost and a higher-than-expected increase in the other expenses (up 32.9% yoy to Rs 81.2 crore) the operating profit margin (OPM) declined by 79 basis points to 12.68%. The operating profit thereby grew by 16.4% yoy to Rs 64.2 crore.
• The raw material cost was under check as copra prices during the quarter were lower by about 10-12% yoy. However, the input cost for edible oils continued to rise and was up by 20-30% across categories. Thereby the adjusted net profit grew by 57.1% to Rs 43.53 crore.
• The company changed its method of charging the depreciation on the factory building that led to a one-time charge of Rs4.29 crore. There was a one-time exchange rate gain of Rs 7.8 crore. After this the reported net profit stood at Rs45.9 crore, which was up 61.5% yoy. 
• Marico continued to implement its three-pronged growth strategy of enhancing the existing products, introducing new products and achieving inorganic growth through acquisitions. During the quarter it entered the South African ethnic hair care and health care markets by acquiring the consumer division of Enaleni Pharmaceuticals, which has an annual turnover of ~Rs 53 crore.
• At the current market price of Rs62, the stock trades at 18.5x our FY2009E earnings per share (EPS) of Rs 3.30.
• I remain positive on Marico's businesses and maintain Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs 70.

Stock Idea - State Bank of India

Recommendation: Buy

CMP = Rs 2,405

Price target: Rs 2,680

Result highlights:

• The public sector behemoth State Bank of India (SBI) reported a profit after tax (PAT) of Rs 1,808.6 crore for Q3FY2008, beating our estimate of Rs 1,413 crore. The PAT was up 69.8% year on year (yoy) and 12.3% quarter on quarter (qoq) on the back of a strong all-round growth. On a consolidated basis, the Q3FY2008 PAT stood at Rs 2,442.3 crore, up 55.1% yoy and 10.8% qoq.
• The net interest income for the quarter stood at Rs 4,256 crore, registering a robust growth of 23.8% yoy on the back of a strong growth in the advances and an improvement in the net interest margin (NIM).
• The NIM during the quarter improved by eight basis points sequentially on the back of an improvement in the yield on assets, which was partially offset by the higher cost of funds. On the year-on-year (y-o-y) basis, the NIM continued to remain under pressure. However, we expect the NIM to improve going forward as the high-cost bulk deposits raised earlier get repriced at lower rates.
• The non-interest income witnessed a whooping growth of 48% yoy to Rs 2,697 crore on the back of jump in treasury income and foreign exchange (forex) income. The treasury income was up 107% yoy to Rs 644 crore while, the forex income tripled yoy to Rs 431 crore. Meanwhile, the core fee income growth was robust at 19% yoy. 
• The operating expenses during the quarter grew by 13.2% yoy to Rs 3,294 crore. The growth was mainly due to a 25.2% y-o-y increase in the other operating expenses as the bank expanded the coverage of its core-banking solution (CBS) platform aggressively. Asset quality continued to improve further during the quarter as evidenced by a sequential reduction of Rs 220 crore in the net non-performing assets (NNPA), while the gross non-performing assets (GNPA) were largely stable at Rs 10,641.
• The capital adequacy ratio at the end of December 2007 stood at a comfortable 12.3% compared with 12.8% for the previous quarter and 11.9% for the year-ago period. Besides the strong stand alone performance, SBI's various subsidiaries and associate banks continued to clock a healthy growth. Notably, SBI Life, the life insurance arm of the bank, reported a PAT of Rs 37.7 crore compared with a loss of Rs 33.5 crore for the year-ago period.
• Following the bank's announcement of its plans to merge the associate banks in itself, the labour unions for the public sector banks have declared their strong opposition against the merger plan. A recent meeting between the Indian Bankers Association and the labour unions on their demands has not yielded any results. Meanwhile, the proposed merger of the State Bank of Saurashtra has received a nod from the boards of both the banks.
• At current market price of Rs 2,405, SBI trades at 22.5x its 2009E earnings per share, 8.9x its 2009E pre-provisioning profit and 2.6x its 2009E book value.
• I would recommend Buy option on this stock with price target of Rs 2,680 in the next 6 months time frame.

Stock Idea - Shiv-Vani Oil & Gas Exploration Services

Recommendation: Buy

CMP = Rs 611

Price target: Rs 670

Result highlights:

• Shiv-vani Oil & Gas Exploration Ltd (SOGEL) reported a healthy growth of 73.6% in its consolidated revenues to Rs 126.7 crore in the quarter ended December 2007. In addition to an increased fleet base and higher realisations, the growth was partially contributed by incremental revenues of around Rs20 crore from the coal bed methane project.
• The operating profit margin (OPM) improved by 560 basis points to 41.5% primarily driven by the improvement in realisations and better utilisation of its fleet. The positive impact of the higher realisations is clearly reflected in the 390-basis-point decline in the drilling expenses (and other operational expenses) as a percentage of the sales. The operating profit grew by 100.8% to Rs 52.6 crore.
• The decline in the depreciation charges as a percentage of the sales and the lower effective tax rate enabled the company to report a relatively higher growth of 178.7% in its earnings to Rs 26.7 crore in Q3FY2008. 
• In the first four quarters, the consolidated revenues and earnings have grown by 42.8% and 104% respectively. The OPM has improved by 350 basis points to 38.5% during the same period. The company was able to more than make up for the steep increase of 50% in the staff cost by scale benefits (savings of 120 basis points in the overheads cost as a percentage of the sales) and higher realisations (saving of 290 basis points in drilling expenses as a percentage of the sales).
• In term of operational highlights, the company bagged an order worth Rs 261 crore to deploy four onshore rigs with Oil India for a period of two years. The average day rate works out to around $22,600, which is around 10-15% higher than the recent contracts with day rates in the range of $18,000-20,000. The contract has further boosted the company's existing order backlog of over Rs 3,000 crore, thereby improving its revenue growth visibility.
• At the current market price the stock trades at 16.9x FY2009 and 12.8x FY2010 estimated earnings.
• I maintain Buy call on the stock with a revised price target of Rs 670.

Stock Idea - 3i Infotech

Recommendation: Buy

CMP = Rs 130

Price target: Rs 180

Result highlights:

• For Q3FY2008, 3i Infotech has reported a revenue growth of 14.2% quarter on quarter (qoq) and 84.9% year on year (yoy) to Rs317.3 crore. The sequential growth was aided by incremental revenues of around Rs16 crore (or around a 6% sequential growth) from its recent acquisitions with the bulk contribution coming from J&B Software (around Rs 15 crore).
• The operating profit margin (OPM) improved by 40 basis points qoq to 24.7%, despite the increase in the selling, general and administration (SG&A) cost as a percentage of the sales to 22.2% as compared with 21.9% in Q2FY2008. The margin improvement was largely driven by the 65-basis-point improvement in the gross margin due to a favourable revenue mix. The higher margin product business contributed 52% of the total revenues as compared with 46.7% in Q2FY2008. Consequently, the operating profit grew by 15.9% qoq and 83.9% yoy to Rs 78.5 crore.
• In terms of operational highlights, the order backlog continued to show a growth of 7.7% qoq to Rs784.5 crore which was largely contributed by a 13% sequential growth in the order backlog in the product business. The company added 150 employees (net of employee addition from acquisitions) in Q3, taking the total strength to around 6,500 employees. The revenues from the top ten clients (excluding ICICI Bank) declined sharply by 20.1% on a sequential basis. 
• The company has maintained its revenue guidance at Rs 1,150-1,250 crore and the earnings guidance at Rs 165-175 crore. In terms of outlook, the company is not witnessing any change in the demand environment and has limited exposure to the US geography (around 30-32% billing in US Dollars) and banking sector. It exposure to the US banking sector is around 20% (largely due to the acquisition of J&B Software) that is largely related to cheque and payment processing, and would not be affected by the current uncertainties. 
• At the current market price the stock trades at 13.7x FY2008 and 10.9x FY2009 earnings estimates. The stock has outperformed the tech index and the other tech stocks in the last quarter and I believe that it would continue to do so
• I maintain Buy call on the stock with the price target of Rs 180.

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Stock Idea - Lupin

Recommendation: Buy

CMP = Rs 515

Price target: Rs 840

Result highlights:

• Lupin's consolidated revenues increased by 43.8% year on year (yoy) to Rs 721.3 crore in Q3FY2008. The growth in the top line was above our expectations and was driven by a 25.3% growth in the domestic formulation business, an appreciable 169.8% jump in the export of formulations to advanced markets and the consolidation of the recent acquisitions.
• Excluding the impact of the acquisitions (which contributed Rs 65-70 crore collectively during the quarter), the like-to-like growth stood at ~30% yoy. 
• Lupin's consolidated operating profit margin (OPM) shrank by 40 basis points yoy to 16.8% in Q3FY2008, led by a 50-basis-point rise in the other expenses. The operating profit grew by 40.8% to Rs 121.5 crore in the quarter. 
• The company received Euro 20 million from the sale of its Perindopril patent rights to Laboratories Servier of France, which boosted the other income and the net profit substantially. As a resultant, the net profit level grew by a whopping 191.6% to Rs 180.9 crore in Q3FY2008.
• At the current market price of Rs 515, Lupin is discounting its FY2008E earnings by 14.4x and its FY2009E earnings by 11.7x.
• I maintain Buy recommendation on Lupin with a price target of Rs 840.

Stosk Idea - Ipca Laboratories

Recommendation: Buy

CMP = Rs 638

Price target: Rs 875

Result highlights:

• Ipca Laboratories (Ipca) reported a 21.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in its net sales to Rs 281.8 crore in Q3FY2008. The sales growth was in line with our expectations and was driven by a 32% rise in the domestic business and a 14% growth in the exports.
• After a subdued performance in Q2FY2008 (on account of lower sales of anti-malarials), Ipca's domestic formulation business resumed its strong momentum. The domestic formulation sales grew by an impressive 32.1% in Q3FY2008, clearly outpacing the industry growth of 12.3%. The strong performance was driven by increased traction seen in the chronic therapy segments of cardiovascular, diabetology and arthritis.
• Ipca's formulation exports grew by 19.2% to Rs 86.4 crore during the quarter. This was on the back of a strong performance in Europe, on account of new product approvals received during H1FY2008. The African, Asian and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) markets also performed well. The performance seems impressive when viewed in light of the ~12-13% appreciation in the rupee against the US Dollar.
• Ipca's operating profit margin (OPM) expanded by 40 basis points to 21.8% in the quarter. The expansion in the margin was driven by a 100-basis-point drop in the staff cost and a 150-basis-point reduction in the other expenses. Consequently, the operating profit grew by 23.7% to Rs 61.6 crore in Q3FY2008.
• At the current market price of Rs 638, Ipca is discounting its FY2008E earnings by 10.6x and its FY2009E earnings by 8.7x. The valuations at these levels seem absolutely compelling when viewed in context of the strong growth potential that awaits the company.
• I maintain positive stance on the stock and maintain Buy call with a price target of Rs 875 for the next 6 months.

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Stock Idea - Bank of India

Recommendation: Buy

CMP = Rs 391

Price target: Rs 432

Result highlights:

• Bank of India's (BoI) profit after tax (PAT) during Q3FY2008 grew by a whooping 101% year on year (yoy) and 20.4% quarter on quarter (qoq) to Rs 511.9 crore. The PAT growth was significantly above our and consensus estimates. The strong PAT growth was on the back of robust rise in the interest income, spike in the non-interest income led by treasury gains, and contained operating expenses.
• The net interest income (NII) of Rs 1,079.5 crore during the quarter indicates a robust growth of 25.7% yoy mainly due to continued strong growth in advances coupled with an improvement in the net interest margin (NIM).
• The reported NIM of 3.14% for the quarter reflects an improvement of 10 basis points yoy from 3.04% for the year-ago period. The NIM improvement was mainly due to the improvement in yields on advances (115 basis points) and the investments (105 basis points), which outweighed the 83-basis-points year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in the cost of funds.
• During the quarter, the advances grew by a strong 30% yoy to Rs 103,657 crore indicating an uptick in the credit off take compared with H1FY2008. The growth in advances was led by a strong growth in foreign advances (up 32.7%). Meanwhile the deposits grew by 27.4% yoy to Rs 135,835 crore on the back of a 36% y-o-y growth in the term deposits and a 32.5% y-o-y growth in the current account deposits. However, due to the higher growth in the term deposits, the current account and saving account (CASA) ratio declined to 37% for the quarter from 40.7% a year ago. 
• The non-interest income witnessed a whooping growth of 72% yoy to Rs 554.1 crore. The growth in the non-interest income was primarily due to the surge in treasury gains, which were up 109% yoy. Meanwhile the fee income grew by a strong 39.5% yoy.
• At the current market price of Rs 391, BoI trades at 10.1x its 2009E earnings per share (EPS), 5x its 2009E pre-provisioning profit (PPP) and 2x its 2009E book value.
• In view of the higher-than-expected Q3FY2008 numbers, I intend to improve the target price to Rs 432 over next 6 months.

Stock Idea - Ranbaxy Laboratories

Recommendation: Buy

CMP = Rs 340

Price target: Rs 500

Key points:

• As part of its settlement with Glaxo SmithKline, Ranbaxy Laboratories (Ranbaxy) has been awarded the 180-day exclusivity for Sumatriptan Succinate, the generic version of Glaxo SmithKline's Imitrex. Ranbaxy will launch the product sometime in December 2008 in the US market.
• The annual market sales for Sumatriptan Succinate (Imitrex®) were USD985 million (IMS- MAT: September 2007). Assuming a market share of 40% for Ranbaxy and a price erosion of 60%, the product can generate revenues and profits of $79 million and $47 million respectively for Ranbaxy during the 180-day exclusivity period. This will translate into incremental earnings of Rs 4.5 per share.
• Ranbaxy's strategy of monetising the Para IV first-to-file (FTF) pipeline has paid off and Ranbaxy has four opportunities, including the recently announced deal on Imitrex, addressing a collective market opportunity of $12 billion lined up until 2010. Based on our discount-cash-flow (DCF) calculations, we believe that the FTF opportunities announced so far are collectively valued at Rs 2,724 crore, translating into a per share value of Rs 68.
• At the current market price of Rs 340, Ranbaxy is discounting our CY2008 earnings estimate by 19.3x.
• I maintain Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs 500.

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Stock Idea - Orbit Corporation

Recommendation: Buy

CMP = Rs 757

Price target: Rs 1,060

Result highlights:

• Orbit Corporation has announced its results for Q3FY2008. Since the company had come out with its initial public offering (IPO) in March 2007, a year-on-year (y-o-y) comparison of its results is not possible. Hence, I have considered quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) comparison.
• Orbit's revenues grew by 129.3% quarter on quarter (qoq) to Rs 223.6 crore in Q3FY2008 as the company started booking revenues from Orbit WTC. The company booked revenues worth Rs 151 crore from this project. 
• Orbit's operating profit margin (OPM) contracted by 328 basis points qoq to 46.2% during the quarter under review. The decline was largely due to a higher revenue contribution from the open space project (Orbit WTC), which has a lower margin compared with the redevelopment project.
• Orbit also reported interest expenses of Rs 27.7 crore compared with Rs 3 crore in Q2FY2008, as it had raised debt worth Rs 300 crore for the Orbit WTC project. The effective tax rate for the company also increased to 28.0% in Q3FY2008 from 12.4% in Q2FY2008 as most of its projects were fully taxed during the quarter compared with all the projects qualified under section 80 IB taxed at the minimum alternative tax (MAT) rate in the previous quarter. 
• At the current market price of Rs 757, Orbit is discounting its FY2008E earnings by 15.0x and FY2009E earnings by 9.8x.
• I maintain positive stance on the stock and maintain Buy recommendation with a price target of Rs 1,060.

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Stock Idea - ICICI Bank

Recommendation: Buy

CMP = Rs 1,173

Price target: Rs 1,528

Result highlights:

• ICICI Bank has reported a profit after tax (PAT) of Rs 1,230 crore for Q3FY2008. That's an increase of 35% year on year (yoy) and 22.7% quarter on quarter (qoq) on the back of an all-round growth. The Q3FY2008 PAT is marginally below our estimate of Rs 1,257 crore. During the quarter, the bank's net interest income grew by a strong 32% yoy and by 9.7% qoq to Rs 1,960 crore. The growth was primarily driven by an improvement in the net interest margin (NIM) and a strong credit growth.
• The reported NIM for the quarter stood at 2.3%, an improvement of seven basis points qoq over 2.23% in Q2FY2008. The NIM expansion was driven by improved yield on investments coupled with contained growth in the cost of funds.
• The reported non-interest income (including treasury gains) registered a strong growth of 22.5% yoy and 17.1% qoq, on the back of a significant growth in the fee income (up 32.7% yoy). The strong fee income growth, despite the slowing retail advances, was due to the increased focus on third party distribution of financial products coupled with an improvement in the fee income from the corporate and international segments. Notably, the treasury income declined by 9% yoy to Rs282 crore in Q3FY2008 owing to a provision of Rs1,500 crore for the mark-to-market losses arising from the credit derivative portfolio. 
• The provisioning for the quarter was up 14% yoy, in line with the uptick in the non-performing assets and focus on unsecured advances, which offer higher yields. The bank's capital adequacy ratio (CAR) as at end of Q3FY2008 stood at a healthy 15.8% with a Tier-1 CAR of 12.1% due to the capital raised through the follow-on public offering in June 2007.
• The bank has received the board's approval for the proposed capital raising exercise for ICICI Securities. The bank plans to dilute a maximum of 15% (of the post-issue capital of ICICI Securities) through an initial public offering and private placement in three to six months. ICICI Bank's other subsidiaries continue to do well with leading market share in their respective spaces. 
• At current market price of Rs 1,173, the stock is trading at 25.4x its earnings per share for 2009E, 12.3x pre-provisioning profit for 2009E and 2.6x its book value for 2009E.
• I maintain buy call on this stock with price target of Rs 1,528 around 6 months time frame.

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Stock Idea - HCL Technologies

Recommendation: Buy
CMP = Rs 274
Price target: Rs 354
Result highlights:

• HCL Technologies (HCLT) has reported a revenue growth of 6.3% quarter on quarter (qoq) and 24% year on year (yoy) to Rs 1,816.6 crore for the second quarter ended December 2007. In dollar terms, it has reported a sequential growth of 7.4% in its consolidated revenues to $461 million.
• The sequential growth in the revenues was driven by a 6.6% growth in the volumes, a 1.6% improvement in the blended realisations and a 1.3% gain from hedging. On the flip side, the revenue growth was adversely impacted by 1.1% due to lesser number of working days in Q2, by 0.8% due to the offshore shift and by 0.2% due to lower effort based pricing revenues during the quarter.
• The operating profit margin (OPM) improved by 10 basis points to 21.4% on a sequential basis due to the cumulative positive impact of higher realisations (123 basis points), hedging gains (100 basis points) and efficiency gains (69 basis points). This positive affect was however partially offset by higher overheads cost (89 basis points due to global customer meet), rupee appreciation (107 basis points) and lower working days (83 basis points).
• The healthy growth of 34.9% in the other income and lower effective tax rate resulted in an earnings growth of 7.9% qoq to Rs 332.9 crore, which is ahead of the street expectations. The company realised treasury gains of $12.3 million in Q2 (as compared with $9 million in Q1).
• It has around $20.3 million of unrealised treasury gains on its books. In terms of accounting treatment for foreign exchange (forex) cover, the company realised net gains of $9 million in Q2, of which $7 million was accounted for in the revenues. It has around $63 million of unrealised forex gains on its books as on December 2007.
• In terms of operational highlights, the company has signed two large deals (multi-million, multi-year) during the quarter, including a $300-million deal (the fourth deal of over $200 million in the past 24 months). The company added 2,312 employees in Q2 (5,937 in H1) and the attrition rate in the software services business declined to 15.5% (declining for the fourth consecutive quarter). It reported robust sequential growth in revenues from US geography (7.9%) and financial services vertical (14.1%) during the quarter.
• HCLT sounded more confident about the demand environment as compared with some of its peers. The management, as per its assessment, believes that the weak economic environment could put pressure on the discretionary Information technology (IT) spending in USA.
• But the focus is more on investing in IT solutions to improve the overall organisational efficiencies and cope up with the challenging environment (rather than cut cost as seen post the dotcom bubble bust in 2001). In fact, the management believes that certain pockets would witness an increase in discretionary IT spending due to tough economic conditions such as enterprise solutions (ERP and CRM). This is clearly reflected in the record license sales by SAP during the last quarter.
• At the current market price the stock trades at 14.8x FY2008 and 11.6x FY2009 estimated earnings.
• I maintain Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs 354.

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Stock Idea - Jaiprakash Associates

Recommendation: Buy

CMP = Rs 424

Price target: Rs 484

Result highlights:

• Jaiprakash Associates' (JP Associates) net sales for Q3FY2008 stood at Rs 900 crore, down 0.2% on year-on-year (y-o-y) basis. Operating profit margin (OPM) for the quarter was at 24.8% against 26.8% during the same quarter last year. The OPM contracted mainly due to lower revenues and higher total expenditure, which went up 2.6% year on year (yoy).
• Other income shot up by 251.7% yoy to Rs 102 crore mainly on account of dividend received from Jaiprakash Hydro Power Ltd. Profit after tax (PAT) was up 53% yoy at Rs 156 crore on account of higher other income and lower tax rate, which was 20% for Q3FY2008 compared with 35% for the corresponding period last year.
• At the current market price the stock is trading at 75x its estimated FY2008 earnings and 74x its estimated FY2009 earnings. Though this appears to be over stretched, it should be noted that the company has huge value in its subsidiaries, investments and large build, operate and transfer (BOT) projects.
• I have revised price target on this scrip to Rs 484. The revision is driven by the higher than expected valuations of its power generation subsidiary, Jaiprakash Power Venture Limited (JPVL) including the value of JP Associates’ holding in Jaypee Hotels and Malvika Steel.
• I maintain Buy call on the stock with a fair value of Rs 484.

Stock Idea - Ranbaxy Laboratories

Recommendation: Buy

CMP = Rs 367

Price target: Rs 500

Result highlights:

• Ranbaxy Laboratories reported a 5.1% revenue growth to Rs 1,784.5 crore during Q4CY2007. As expected, the growth was affected by the appreciation in the rupee, as the growth in dollar terms was more robust at 19%. 
• The growth was driven by a 24% increase in the sales to the emerging markets. India, the Commonwealth of Independent States, Romania, South Africa and Brazil were the key drivers of the growth in the emerging markets. The US business declined by 3.7% (on a high-base of Q4CY2006 when the company had recorded substantial revenues from exclusivity opportunities) to $104 million during the quarter. However, the base business (excluding the impact of the exclusivity revenues) grew by 8%.
• The operating profit margin remained under pressure during the quarter and declined by 90 basis points year on year (yoy). The decline in the margins was largely due to the increase in the material cost (due to the impact of the rising rupee, which reduced the realisations, and the high base of Q4CY2006, when the company had recorded revenues from the Simvastatin exclusivity). Consequently, the operating profit of the company declined by 3.8% yoy to Rs 179.9 crore in Q4CY2007. 
• The company recorded an extraordinary income of Rs 4.4 crore during the quarter on account of sale of land and buildings, which boosted the net profit after extraordinary items. The pre-exceptional net profit stood at Rs183.5 crore, down by 1.3% yoy. The same was ahead of our estimate of Rs 164.7 crore. 
• For CY2007, Ranbaxy Laboratories' consolidated revenues grew by 20% to $1,607 million. However, due to the impact of the appreciating rupee, the growth in rupee terms was more moderate at 9.5% to Rs 6,590.4 crore. The sales reported by the company were ahead of our estimates. The net profit for CY2007 stood at Rs 790.1 crore, up by 53.3% yoy. Excluding the impact of the foreign exchange gains, the net profit stood at Rs606.9 crore, a growth of 15% yoy. 
• The management has guided towards a 18-20% top line growth in CY2008 and an expansion of earnings before interest, depreciation, tax and amortisation (EBIDTA) margin from 16.6% in CY2007 to 17.5-18% in CY2008, resulting in a net profit growth of 20-25% in CY2008. 
• At the current market price of Rs 367, the stock is discounting its estimated CY2008 earnings by 20.8x. I maintain Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs 500.

Stock Idea - ICICI Bank & State Bank of India

ICICI Bank

Recommendation: Buy

CMP = Rs 1,409 (as of Monday)

Price target: Rs 1,528

Key points:

• ICICI Bank has announced plans to unlock value in its subsidiaries by listing them. ICICI Securities is believed to be the first to hit the market and is likely to be followed by ICICI Prudential, ICICI Lombard, ICICI Ventures and ICICI Prudential Asset Management.
• ICICI Securities the investment banking and broking arm with its 1.4 million customer base, wide geographical reach and growing merchant banking business, should see an upside of Rs 296 per share. ICICI Ventures currently manages about Rs9,970 crore, which is expected to reach Rs 24,000 crore by FY2009. At 15% of the assets under management (AUM) benchmark, the valuation indicates additional upside of Rs 21 per share.
• I expect additional upside of Rs 31 per share for ICICI Prudential Asset Management on back of strong AUM growth coupled with better valuation multiple (from 7% of AUM currently to 11% of AUM).
• In total, my estimates indicate a total upside of Rs 299 per share, however I would prefer to wait for the Q3FY2008 results before finalising further estimates.

 

State Bank of India

Recommendation: Buy

CMP = Rs 2,462 (as of Monday)

Price target: Rs 2,680

Key points:

• State Bank of India (SBI) priced its mega rights issue at Rs 1,590 per share at a 35.7% discount to the closing price on January 11, 2008. The bank has announced a rights issue ratio of 1:5 and fixed record date at February 04, 2008. This will expand SBI's capital base to Rs 631.6 crore.
• The Government of India (GOI) plans to invest Rs 10,000 crore in the issue to maintain its 59.7% stake in SBI. Despite the higher-than-expected discount, the rights issue is book-value accretive. SBI's capital adequacy ratio (CAR) should improve from 11.5% in FY2007 to 13% in FY2008. Meanwhile, Tier-I capital is likely to improve to 10.2% (by FY2008) from 8% in FY2007. 
• I expect major portion of the rights issue proceeds to be deployed in investments as anticipated deposit growth is sufficient to fund credit growth. Consequently, the return on equity (RoE) and earnings per share (EPS) should remain suppressed in near term while we expect RoE to return to ~15% level by 2011.
• In addition, SBI has announced the approval to issue employee stock options plan (ESOP) making it the first public sector bank (PSB) to launch non-cash remuneration in the form of equity shares. The bank has not disclosed the number of shares earmarked for ESOP.

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Stock Idea - Aban Offshore

Recommendation: Buy

CMP = Rs 5,050

Price target: Rs 5,420

Result highlights:

• For Q3FY2008, Aban Offshore Ltd (AOL) has reported a growth of 34% quarter on quarter (qoq) and of 2.3% year on year (yoy) in its stand-alone revenues to Rs 169.1 crore. On an annual basis, the growth is largely driven by the higher day rates for its floating production units Tahara and Aban VI. Moreover, the incremental revenues from Aban II have also aided the overall growth in revenues.
• The operating profit margin has declined by 80 basis points yoy to 54% largely due to the jump in the rental charges as a percentage of the sales (7.4% of sales as compared with 2.2% in Q3FY2007 and 6.1% in Q2FY2008). This was partially mitigated by the savings in the consumables and insurance cost. The operating profit grew by 8.7% qoq and 32.2% yoy to Rs 84 crore.
• The other income jumped by 342.8% to Rs 24.8 crore, enabling the company to report a 129.8% increase yoy in its stand-alone earnings to Rs 47.8 crore. Sequentially, the earnings grew marginally by 1.1% largely due to a higher other income and better margins. It should be noted that the stand-alone results do not provide the complete picture as the valuations are based on the consolidated earnings estimate of FY2010. 
• In terms of key events, the company extended the existing contract for Aban VI for three years (with an option to further extend for three more years) with Oriental Oil, Dubai. The contract is estimated to generate $95 million (amounting to a day rate of $88,500, which is much higher than $39,000 earlier) over the firm contract period of three years. Through its Singapore subsidiary, the company has entered into a contract with Chevron Offshore (Thailand) to deploy jack-up drilling rig, Deep Driller 2, for an estimated duration between five and seven months for drilling operations offshore Thailand.
• This contract will commence this month at a day rate of around $186,650. Apart from this, AOL (through a subsidiary company, Aban Pearl Pte) completed the purchase of the semi-submersible Rig "Bulford Dolphin" (being renamed "Aban Pearl") on November 21, 2007. All the three vessels would add to the company’s overall growth in the fourth quarter ended March 2007.
• At the current market price the stock trades at 12.9x FY2009 and 10x FY2010 estimated earnings. In addition to the attractive valuations and favourable macro environment, the impending listing of its Singapore subsidiary continues to be an important trigger for the stock going ahead.
• I maintain the Buy call on the stock with a price target of Rs 5,420.

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Stock Idea - Infosys Technologies

Recommendation: Buy (My Personal Favourite!)

CMP = Rs 1,600

Price target: Rs 2,135

Result highlights:

• Infosys Technologies (Infosys) reported a revenue growth of 4% quarter on quarter (qoq) and of 16.9% year on year (yoy) to Rs 4,271 crore in Q3FY2008. The sequential growth in the revenues was achieved on the back of a volume growth of 4.5% in its consolidated information technology (IT) service business, an increase of 0.8% qoq in its blended realisation and other scale benefits (0.6%). On the other hand, the rupee appreciation of 1.9% qoq adversely affected the growth in the revenues during the quarter.
• The operating profit margin (OPM) improved by 130 basis points sequentially to 32.6% in Q3FY2008. The OPM expanded due to the cumulative impact of an improvement in the blended realisation (up by 80 basis points), savings in overhead cost as a percentage of sales (a gain of 140 basis points) and a surge in the scale benefits (up 60 basis points). On the other hand, the rupee appreciation had a negative effect of around 80 basis points on the OPM.
• However, there were one-time items in Q3 that had a net adverse impact of around $6 million on the OPM: an expense of $26 million related to the settlement for overtime payment to certain employees in California and the write-back of provisions worth $18 million related to excess provisions for insurance charges made earlier. Adjusting for the same, the OPM stood at a healthy level of 33.1% for the quarter.
• The revised guidance for FY2008 is also in line with the expectations. In dollar terms, the revenue growth guidance has been upgraded marginally to 35-35.2% (up from 34.5-35% guided in October 2007). The earnings growth guidance in dollar terms has been upgraded by around 1.5% to $2.02 per share (up from $1.98-1.99 per share in October 2007). In rupee terms, the upward revision in the revenue growth guidance was largely flat at Rs 16,627-16,651 crore (up from Rs 16,588-16,648 crore in October 2007) with an exchange rate assumption of Rs 39.41/USD. Including the tax write-back, the earnings growth guidance in rupee terms has been upgraded to Rs 81.07 per share (up from Rs 79.49-79.88 per share given in October last), which is in line with the consensus estimates.
• For Q4, the management has guided to a sequential growth of 4.8-5.4% in its consolidated revenues and a growth of around 3.5% qoq in the earnings per share (EPS) to Rs 21.38 as compared with the adjusted EPS of Rs 20.66 in Q3FY2008.
• In terms of operational highlights, the company reported a healthy net addition of 8,100 employees in Q3 and raised the guidance for gross employee addition to 31,000 for the full year (it does not include the addition of 1,500 employees from the Philips deal). The revenue growth of 8.6% in the banking and financial services (BFS) segment was also encouraging and the company was able to negotiate higher billing rates from some of its financial service clients during the quarter. It bagged nine large deals (worth over $50 million each) in Q3, including two clients from the financial service vertical. 
• The management re-iterated that there is no material impact of the uncertainties in the USA on the overall demand environment. However, the management indicated that there is a delay in the finalisation of the IT budgets for 2008 by many of the company's clients and it expects better clarity on the same by the end of January or early February. On the positive side, there is an average growth of around 6% in the IT budgets of clients that have already finalised the same for 2008. 
• I have maintained the exchange rate assumption at Rs 39.8 per USD in FY2008 and at Rs 39 per USD for FY2009 and have kept the earnings estimates largely unchanged. However, given the continued uncertainties and the lack of any short-term triggers, I don't expect any re-rating of the tech stocks in the coming months.
• At the current market price the stock trades at 19.8x its FY2008 and 16.5x its FY2009 earnings estimates. I maintain Buy recommendation on the stock with the a revised price target of Rs 2,135.